Concepts of Forensic Inference and Statistics

There is an ongoing paradigm shift in evaluation of forensic evidence away from methods based on human perception and subjective judgement to methods based on relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models; methods that are transparent and reproducible, use the logically correct framework for interpretation of forensic evidence (the likelihood-ratio framework), are resistant to cognitive bias, and are calibrated and validated under casework conditions. The paradigm shift is spreading across different branches of forensic science, and there is a need for more forensic practitioners and lawyers to have a working knowledge of the concepts of forensic inference and statistics. This continuing-professional-development (CPD) module will provide you with a conceptual understanding of forensic inference and statistics, including an understanding of the likelihood-ratio framework for interpretation of forensic evidence.

The focus of the module is on understanding of concepts rather than practical implementation skills. No prior knowledge of statistics is assumed. Module

Learning outcomes

On successful completion of this module, you will: Understand how to perform source-level forensic evaluation via quantitative implementation of the likelihood-ratio framework. Understand how to empirically calibrate and validate forensic-evaluation systems. Understand what cognitive bias is and be familiar with strategies for reducing its potential impact.

Be familiar with the requirements and recommendations of standards and guidelines related to evaluation of forensic evidence, and with legal admissibility of forensic evidence. Module Content: Logical reasoning for evaluation of forensic evidence Concepts of statistical modelling for evaluation of forensic evidence Empirical calibration and validation of forensic-evaluation systems Cognitive bias in evaluation of forensic evidence Standards and guidelines related to evaluation of forensic evidence Legal admissibility of forensic evidence from a scientific perspective Examples from multiple branches of forensic science